Home | Goldstreet Business
Thursday, February 2, 2023
  • Home
  • General News
    • Extractives
    • Auto
  • Business
    • Banking and Finance
    • AgriBusiness
    • Insurance
    • Mining
    • Oil and Gas
    • Real Estate/Housing
  • News
    • Top Stories
    • Agriculture
    • Maritime/Aviation
    • Energy
    • Education
    • Construction
  • Technology
    • ICT
    • Telecom
  • World
    • Africa
    • International
  • Editorial/Features
  • GSB Data Services
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • General News
    • Extractives
    • Auto
  • Business
    • Banking and Finance
    • AgriBusiness
    • Insurance
    • Mining
    • Oil and Gas
    • Real Estate/Housing
  • News
    • Top Stories
    • Agriculture
    • Maritime/Aviation
    • Energy
    • Education
    • Construction
  • Technology
    • ICT
    • Telecom
  • World
    • Africa
    • International
  • Editorial/Features
  • GSB Data Services
No Result
View All Result
Gold Business Logo
No Result
View All Result
Home World International

The return of global inflation

February 14, 2022
in International, Top Stories, World
0
The return of global inflation
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Inflation has come back faster, spiked more markedly, and proved to be more stubborn and persistent than major central banks initially thought possible. After initially dominating headlines in the United States, the problem has become a centrepiece of policy discussions in many other advanced economies. In 15 of the 34 countries classified as AEs by the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook, 12-month inflation through December 2021 was running above 5%. Such a sudden, shared jump in high inflation (by modern standards) has not been seen in more than 20 years.

Nor is this inflationary surge limited to wealthy countries. Emerging markets and developing economies have been hit by a similar wave, with 78 out of 109 EMDEs also confronting annual inflation rates above 5%. That share of EMDEs (71%) is about twice as large as it was at the end of 2020. Inflation thus has become a global problem – or nearly so, with Asia so far immune.

RELATED POSTS

IMF projects 3.8% growth rate for Sub-Saharan Africa, 2.8% for Ghana

Debt Exchange: NIC to suspend minimum capital requirements, CAR of insurance firms for 2 years

The primary drivers of the inflation spike are not uniform across countries, particularly when comparing AEs and EMDEs. Diagnoses of “overheating,” prevalent in the US discourse, do not apply to many EMDEs, where fiscal and monetary stimulus in response to COVID-19 was limited, and where economic recovery in 2021 lagged well behind the AE rebound.

Moreover, the pandemic-induced bust-and-recovery patterns differ markedly across country income groups, with recovery being defined as an economy’s return to its 2019 level of per capita income. About 41% of high-income AEs met that threshold at the end of 2021, compared to 28% of middle-income EMDEs and just 23% of low-income countries.

But the disparity between advanced and developing economies is even greater than this comparison suggests, because many EMDEs were already experiencing declines in per capita income before the pandemic, whereas AEs were mostly at new highs. While many EMDEs have marked down their estimates of potential output over the past two years, there is little to suggest that their inflationary pressures are driven primarily by overheating in the aftermath of significant policy stimulus.

One development that is common across advanced and developing economies is the increase in commodity prices alongside rising global demand. As of January 2022, oil prices were up 77% from their December 2020 level.

Another major issue affecting advanced and developing economies alike is global supply chains, which continue to be severely affected by the events of the past two years. Transport costs have skyrocketed. And unlike the oil-based supply shock of the 1970s, the COVID-19 supply shocks are more diverse and opaque, and therefore more uncertain, as the World Bank’s most recent Global Economic Prospects stresses.

In EMDEs, currency depreciation (owing to lower inflows of foreign capital and downgrades of sovereign credit ratings) has contributed to inflation among imported goods. And because inflation expectations in EMDEs are less anchored and more attune to currency movements than in AEs, the passthrough from exchange rates to prices tends to be faster and more pronounced.

Another important factor is food price inflation. During 2021, 12-month increases in food prices exceeded 5% in 79% (86 out of 109) of EMDEs. While AEs have not been immune to rising food prices, just 27% of them experienced price hikes exceeding 5%.

Worse, food price inflation also generally hits lower-income countries (and lower-income households everywhere) particularly hard, which makes it tantamount to a regressive tax. Food accounts for a much larger share of the average household consumption basket in EMDEs, which means that inflation in those economies is likely to prove persistent. Today’s higher energy prices will translate directly into higher food prices tomorrow (through higher costs for fertilizer, transport, and so forth).

Although most EMDEs no longer have fixed exchange rates – as they did during the inflation-prone 1970s – the scope for “truly independent” monetary policy in small open economies remains limited, floating exchange rates notwithstanding. The risk of them importing inflation from the global financial centres is not some relic of the past.

Indeed, the most salient feature of today’s inflation is its ubiquity. In the absence of global policy options to resolve supply-chain disruptions, the task of addressing inflation is left to the major central banks. While the US is poised to undergo a modest tightening (by historical standards) in 2022, this is unlikely to be sufficient to rein in price growth. As Kenneth Rogoff and I document in a 2013 paper, much of the inflation persistence of the 1970s stemmed from the US Federal Reserve’s tendency to do too little, too late (until Paul Volcker’s arrival).

To be sure, a more timely and robust policy response from major central banks would not be good news for EMDEs in the short run. Most would experience higher funding costs, and debt crises could become significantly more likely for some. Nonetheless, the longer-term costs of delaying action would be greater. Because the US and other advanced economies failed to tackle inflation quickly during the 1970s, they ultimately needed far more draconian policies, which led to America’s second-deepest post-war recession, along with a developing-country debt crisis.

As the old saying goes, “A stitch in time saves nine.” In the meantime, the resurgence of inflation will continue to reinforce inequality, both within and across countries.

About the authors:

Carmen M. Reinhart is Chief Economist of the World Bank; and Clemens Graf von Luckner is an economist at the World Bank. www.project-syndicate.org

facebookShare on Facebook
TwitterTweet
Source: Goldstreetbusiness
Via: Carmen M. Reinhart and Clemens Graf Von Luckner
ShareTweetShare

Related Posts

IMF projects growth rate of 4.2% for Ghana in 2021

IMF projects 3.8% growth rate for Sub-Saharan Africa, 2.8% for Ghana

January 31, 2023
Debt Exchange: NIC to suspend minimum capital requirements, CAR of insurance firms for 2 years

Debt Exchange: NIC to suspend minimum capital requirements, CAR of insurance firms for 2 years

January 31, 2023
Fuel prices to increase by 7%-13% from February 1, 2023 – IES

Fuel prices to increase by 7%-13% from February 1, 2023 – IES

January 31, 2023
Economy Picks Up

Policy rate increases to 28%; cost of loans to surge

January 30, 2023
Gulf Technology Systems, Ghana To Collaborate On Agricultural and Industrial Projects

Gulf Technology Systems, Ghana To Collaborate On Agricultural and Industrial Projects

January 30, 2023
Next Post
Expanding African Trade to Boost Growth and Reduce Poverty

Expanding African Trade to Boost Growth and Reduce Poverty

Giant Miners to see record profits slip as cost pressures bite

Giant Miners to see record profits slip as cost pressures bite

Discussion about this post

Archives

<
January 2023
  • January 2023
  • December 2022
  • November 2022
  • October 2022
  • September 2022
  • August 2022
  • July 2022
  • June 2022
  • May 2022
  • April 2022
  • March 2022
  • February 2022
  • January 2022
  • December 2021
  • November 2021
  • October 2021
  • September 2021
  • August 2021
  • July 2021
  • June 2021
  • May 2021
  • April 2021
  • March 2021
  • February 2021
  • January 2021
  • December 2020
  • November 2020
  • October 2020
  • September 2020
  • August 2020
  • July 2020
  • June 2020
  • May 2020
  • April 2020
  • March 2020
  • February 2020
  • January 2020
  • December 2019
  • November 2019
  • October 2019
  • September 2019
  • August 2019
  • July 2019
  • June 2019
  • May 2019
  • April 2019
  • March 2019
  • February 2019
  • January 2019
  • December 2018
  • November 2018
  • October 2018
  • September 2018
  • August 2018
  • July 2018
  • June 2018
  • May 2018
  • April 2018
  • March 2018
▼
>
MonTueWedThuFriSatSun
      1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
3031     
   1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728293031 
       
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
282930    
       
     12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
31      
   1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
2627282930  
       
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
293031    
       
    123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
25262728293031
       
  12345
6789101112
13141516171819
20212223242526
27282930   
       
      1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
3031     
    123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
252627282930 
       
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28293031   
       
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28      
       
     12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
31      
  12345
6789101112
13141516171819
20212223242526
2728293031  
       
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
2930     
       
    123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
25262728293031
       
  12345
6789101112
13141516171819
20212223242526
27282930   
       
      1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
3031     
   1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728293031 
       
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
282930    
       
     12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
31      
   1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
2627282930  
       
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
293031    
       
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
       
       
    123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
25262728293031
       
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28293031   
       
      1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
30      
   1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728293031 
       
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
282930    
       
     12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
31      
  12345
6789101112
13141516171819
20212223242526
2728293031  
       
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
2930     
       
    123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
25262728293031
       
  12345
6789101112
13141516171819
20212223242526
27282930   
       
      1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
3031     
     12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
242526272829 
       
  12345
6789101112
13141516171819
20212223242526
2728293031  
       
      1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
3031     
    123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
252627282930 
       
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28293031   
       
      1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
30      
   1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728293031 
       
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
293031    
       
     12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
       
  12345
6789101112
13141516171819
20212223242526
2728293031  
       
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
2930     
       
    123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
25262728293031
       
    123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
25262728   
       
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28293031   
       
     12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
31      
   1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
2627282930  
       
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
293031    
       
     12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
       
  12345
6789101112
13141516171819
20212223242526
2728293031  
       
      1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
3031     
    123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
252627282930 
       
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28293031   
       
      1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
30      
   1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728293031 
       

RECOMMENDED

IMF projects growth rate of 4.2% for Ghana in 2021

IMF projects 3.8% growth rate for Sub-Saharan Africa, 2.8% for Ghana

January 31, 2023
Debt Exchange: NIC to suspend minimum capital requirements, CAR of insurance firms for 2 years

Debt Exchange: NIC to suspend minimum capital requirements, CAR of insurance firms for 2 years

January 31, 2023

MOST VIEWED

Plugin Install : Popular Post Widget need JNews - View Counter to be installed
  • Energy
  • Health
  • Auto
  • International
  • Subscription Form
  • Staff Webmail
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
Call us: +233 24 432 0902 | info@goldstreetbusiness.com

© Copyright © 2020 goldstreetbusiness.com. All Rights Reserved.

No Result
View All Result
  • Homepages
    • Homepage Layout 1
    • Homepage Layout 2
  • World
  • Business
  • Technology
  • Health

© Copyright © 2020 goldstreetbusiness.com. All Rights Reserved.

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Fill the forms bellow to register

All fields are required. Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
This website uses cookies. By continuing to use this website you are giving consent to cookies being used. Visit our Privacy and Cookie Policy.